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Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 12:45

Radomiak Radom

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Zaglebie Lubin

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+16.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.2%0-24.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-06.6%1-110.3%1-28.0%1-34.2%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.6%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.1%3-14.8%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.9%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.7% 42.0% 2.38 -10.3%

Draw 21.8% 32.3% 3.10 -19.4%

Away win 40.5% 34.5% 2.90 +17.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 54.1% 1.85 +16.7%

Over 3.5 39.4% 30.8% 3.25 +28.1%

BTTS 61.3% 59.9% 1.67 +2.4%

Home O1.5 48.6% 44.4% 2.25 +9.3%

Away O1.5 48.5% 40.0% 2.50 +21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

A 40% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–2 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomiak Radom1.7

Zaglebie Lubin1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 1.65

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Radomiak Radom (H) 37.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -10.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.4%

Zaglebie Lubin (A) 40.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomiak Radom face Zaglebie Lubin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomiak Radom a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Zaglebie Lubin 41%, so Zaglebie Lubin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Radomiak Radom and 1.6 for Zaglebie Lubin (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.11 for Zaglebie Lubin. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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