Today / Poland - Ekstraklasa / Motor Lublin vs GKS Katowice

Motor Lublin vs GKS Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:45

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

GKS Katowice

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.5%0-24.3%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.3%1-19.8%1-27.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.4%3-15.2%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 38.8% 2.58 +14.8%

Draw 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

Away win 30.6% 41.3% 2.42 -25.9%

Over 2.5 59.5% 63.7% 1.57 -6.6%

Over 3.5 36.5% 41.7% 2.40 -12.4%

BTTS 60.3% 67.6% 1.48 -10.8%

Home O1.5 49.2% 50.0% 2.00 -1.6%

Away O1.5 47.3% 51.3% 1.95 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motor Lublin1.8

GKS Katowice1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.20

GKS KATOWICE · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Motor Lublin (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +14.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.0%

GKS Katowice (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motor Lublin face GKS Katowice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motor Lublin a 45% chance, the draw 25% and GKS Katowice 31%, so Motor Lublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Motor Lublin and 1.6 for GKS Katowice (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motor Lublin are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.98 for GKS Katowice. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.5%.

Motor Lublin vs GKS Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - Ekstraklasa Predictions