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Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:15

Widzew Łódź

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.7%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.1%1-112.4%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.7%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 34.5% 2.90 +14.3%

Draw 25.4% 27.8% 3.60 -5.1%

Away win 35.3% 46.5% 2.15 -24.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 40.0% 2.50 -21.3%

BTTS 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 54.6% 1.83 -33.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Widzew Łódź1.4

Lech Poznan1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WIDZEW ŁÓDŹ · PPG 1.36

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.96

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Widzew Łódź (H) 39.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +14.3%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.1%

Lech Poznan (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Widzew Łódź face Lech Poznan in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Widzew Łódź a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Lech Poznan 35%, so Widzew Łódź are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Widzew Łódź and 1.2 for Lech Poznan (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.96 for Lech Poznan. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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