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Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:15

Widzew Łódź

PPG 1.59 · HOME

UPCOMING

Korona Kielce

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-18.3%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.3%1-112.0%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.7%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.2%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 50.8% 1.97 -3.9%

Draw 27.9% 30.3% 3.30 -4.8%

Away win 23.3% 26.0% 3.85 -6.2%

Over 2.5 42.7% 47.6% 2.10 -10.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

BTTS 47.7% 52.6% 1.90 -9.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

Away O1.5 17.2% 29.4% 3.40 -24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Widzew Łódź1.4

Korona Kielce0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WIDZEW ŁÓDŹ · PPG 1.59

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 0.98

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Widzew Łódź (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -3.9%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.8%

Korona Kielce (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Widzew Łódź face Korona Kielce in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Widzew Łódź a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Korona Kielce 23%, so Widzew Łódź are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Widzew Łódź and 0.7 for Korona Kielce (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.98 for Korona Kielce.

Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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