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Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 6 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:00

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-112.1%0-26.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.7%1-113.5%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.6%2-17.5%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.8%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 37.6% 2.66 -3.2%

Draw 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -3.5%

Away win 35.9% 40.0% 2.50 -10.3%

Over 2.5 44.8% 50.0% 2.00 -10.4%

Over 3.5 25.6% 28.2% 3.55 -5.5%

BTTS 48.8% 56.5% 1.77 -13.6%

Home O1.5 31.0% 39.2% 2.55 -20.9%

Away O1.5 29.0% 41.7% 2.40 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.8%

H 36% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 12.3%

#4 1–0 13.7%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisla Plock1.1

Korona Kielce1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.47

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wisla Plock (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.5%

Korona Kielce (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisla Plock face Korona Kielce in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisla Plock a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Korona Kielce 36%, so Wisla Plock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Wisla Plock and 1.0 for Korona Kielce (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisla Plock are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.27 for Korona Kielce. This match finished 0-2.

Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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