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Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:15

Radomiak Radom

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cracovia Krakow

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.6%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.4%1-112.8%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.6%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 33.9% 2.95 +15.0%

Draw 25.3% 28.6% 3.50 -6.9%

Away win 35.6% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 52.6% 1.90 -4.0%

Over 3.5 29.5% 30.8% 3.25 -2.5%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 37.7% 38.5% 2.60 -2.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 46.5% 2.15 -29.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 0–1 9.6%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radomiak Radom1.3

Cracovia Krakow1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 1.57

CRACOVIA KRAKOW · PPG 1.15

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Radomiak Radom (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +15.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.9%

Cracovia Krakow (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radomiak Radom face Cracovia Krakow in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radomiak Radom a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Cracovia Krakow 36%, so Radomiak Radom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Radomiak Radom and 1.1 for Cracovia Krakow (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.15 for Cracovia Krakow. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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