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GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

GKS Katowice

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.9%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.7%1-112.1%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.3%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.7%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 51.3% 1.95 -3.3%

Draw 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -6.6%

Away win 24.2% 28.6% 3.50 -9.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 59.9% 1.67 -16.3%

Over 3.5 28.2% 38.2% 2.62 -15.7%

BTTS 52.8% 63.7% 1.57 -17.1%

Home O1.5 41.8% 55.6% 1.80 -24.8%

Away O1.5 22.8% 38.2% 2.62 -24.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.8%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GKS Katowice1.5

Wisla Plock0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GKS KATOWICE · PPG 1.99

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.32

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

GKS Katowice (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -3.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.6%

Wisla Plock (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

GKS Katowice face Wisla Plock in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GKS Katowice a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Wisla Plock 24%, so GKS Katowice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for GKS Katowice and 0.9 for Wisla Plock (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GKS Katowice are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.32 for Wisla Plock. This match finished 5-0.

GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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