A Lyga
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 67 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
41.8%
1X2
28/67
37.3%
O/U 2.5
25/67
52.2%
BTTS
35/67
43.3%
Exact score
29/67
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
10
Settled
40.0%
Hit rate
4/10
2.17
Avg odds
-25.8%
ROI
-2.6u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.70 · -26.0% ROI
BTTS · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.76 · -19.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 5.80 · -100.0% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.77 · -100.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.10 · +110.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+85.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
7
Bets
29%
Hit
-46.9%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 1 PICK · 0 HIT · 1 MISS
3 SEPT Banga vs Panevėžys Home +6% 0–3 MISSAugust 2026 // 13 PICKS · 7 HIT · 6 MISS
31 AUG Džiugas Telšiai vs Hegelmann Litauen HO1.5 2–2 HIT30 AUG Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole Away -5% 1–2 HIT30 AUG Banga vs Kauno Žalgiris BTTS +1% 0–0 MISS30 AUG Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius BTTS -15% 2–0 MISS24 AUG TransINVEST Vilnius vs Šiauliai HO1.5 3–0 HIT23 AUG Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga BTTS -7% 1–1 HIT23 AUG Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys Home +6% 2–0 HIT23 AUG FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai BTTS -1% 2–0 MISS17 AUG Šiauliai vs Panevėžys BTTS 1–0 MISS17 AUG Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole — NO PICK 0–2 —16 AUG Kauno Žalgiris vs TransINVEST Vilnius Over 2.5 +5% 1–1 MISS16 AUG FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga BTTS -12% 2–3 HIT10 AUG TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys Home +2% 0–2 MISS9 AUG Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai Away 3–4 HIT