A Lyga

LITHUANIA · 44 MATCHES TRACKED · 17 APR 2026 – 21 JUN 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 44 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

36.4%

1X2

16/44

40.9%

O/U 2.5

18/44

52.3%

BTTS

23/44

38.6%

Exact score

17/44

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

50.0%

Hit rate

9/18

1.85

Avg odds

-13.9%

ROI

-2.5u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=7 85.7% HIT · AVG 1.68 · +44.6% ROI

HOME WIN · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.60 · -38.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=4 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.57 · -100.0% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.67 · +67.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+95.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

54%

Hit

-10.8%

ROI

Match log

44 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

June 2026 // 9 PICKS · 8 HIT · 1 MISS

21 JUN Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva BTTS -5% 1–2 HIT 20 JUN Panevezys vs Siauliai BTTS 3–2 HIT 20 JUN TransINVEST vs Kauno Zalgiris BTTS -11% 1–2 HIT 20 JUN Banga vs Zalgiris — NO PICK 3–0 —17 JUN Hegelmann L. vs Dziugas Telsiai BTTS -5% 1–1 HIT 17 JUN Kauno Zalgiris vs Banga — NO PICK 0–1 —16 JUN Suduva vs Siauliai Home 2–1 HIT 16 JUN Zalgiris vs Panevezys Home -14% 3–0 HIT 14 JUN Hegelmann L. vs Kauno Zalgiris Away -20% 1–1 MISS 13 JUN Suduva vs Banga — NO PICK 0–0 —12 JUN Panevezys vs TransINVEST BTTS -5% 1–2 HIT 12 JUN Dziugas Telsiai vs Siauliai Home 4–3 HIT

May 2026 // 3 PICKS · 1 HIT · 2 MISS

31 MAY Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Home -10% 0–1 MISS 30 MAY Dziugas Telsiai vs Panevezys Home +16% 4–0 HIT 30 MAY Banga vs Siauliai Home 1–1 MISS