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Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Šiauliai

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Suduva Marijampole

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-112.4%0-212.6%0-38.5%0-4+6.8%1 1-04.7%1-19.5%1-29.6%1-36.5%1-4+5.2%2 2-01.8%2-13.7%2-23.7%2-32.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.9% 15.4% 6.50 -9.7%

Draw 21.5% 25.6% 3.90 -9.7%

Away win 65.7% 69.4% 1.44 -5.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 33.1% 36.4% 2.75 -9.0%

BTTS 52.2% 55.6% 1.80 -6.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 23.1% 4.33 +33.8%

Away O1.5 56.9% 63.7% 1.57 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob52.2%

A 66% / xG 0.8-2.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.6%

#2 0–1 12.4%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 1–2✓ 9.6%

#5 0–3 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Šiauliai0.8

Suduva Marijampole2.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ŠIAULIAI · PPG 1.00

SUDUVA MARIJAMPOLE · PPG 1.58

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.26 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Šiauliai (H) 12.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -9.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.7%

Suduva Marijampole (A) 65.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -5.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Šiauliai face Suduva Marijampole in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Šiauliai a 13% chance, the draw 22% and Suduva Marijampole 66%, so Suduva Marijampole are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Šiauliai and 2.0 for Suduva Marijampole (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Šiauliai are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.58 for Suduva Marijampole. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +33.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Šiauliai vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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