Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga

Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:30

Hegelmann Litauen

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Banga

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-114.7%0-210.7%0-35.2%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.4%1-112.3%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.5%2-15.1%2-23.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.6%

Draw 26.1% 32.3% 3.10 -11.5%

Away win 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

Over 3.5 29.6% 28.6% 3.50 +2.2%

BTTS 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.0%

A 48% / xG 0.8-1.5 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.7%

#2 1–1✓ 12.3%

#3 0–2 10.7%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann Litauen0.8

Banga1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN LITAUEN · PPG 1.08

BANGA · PPG 1.71

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.63 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann Litauen (H) 25.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.6%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.5%

Banga (A) 48.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann Litauen face Banga in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann Litauen a 26% chance, the draw 26% and Banga 48%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.5 for Banga (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann Litauen are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.71 for Banga. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions