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Banga vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 24 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 16:00

Banga

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

UPCOMING

Panevėžys

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-14.7%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.6%1-19.2%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.5%3-16.0%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-14.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% 58.8% 1.70 +4.0%

Draw 22.9% 26.7% 3.75 -8.5%

Away win 15.9% 25.6% 3.90 -22.8%

Over 2.5 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Over 3.5 30.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

BTTS 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Away O1.5 16.3% 29.4% 3.40 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 61% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 3–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banga2.0

Panevėžys0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGA · PPG 1.58

PANEVĖŽYS · PPG 0.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Banga (H) 61.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +4.0%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.5%

Panevėžys (A) 15.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Banga face Panevėžys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banga a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Panevėžys 16%, so Banga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Banga and 0.6 for Panevėžys (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banga are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.69 for Panevėžys. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +10.6%.

Banga vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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