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Banga vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:45

Banga

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kauno Žalgiris

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.9%0-27.5%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.5%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.8%2-17.2%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.1%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.7% 26.3% 3.80 +16.7%

Draw 26.8% 33.3% 3.00 -11.8%

Away win 42.5% 52.4% 1.91 -18.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.7% 52.4% 1.91 +0.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 0–0✓ 9.5%

#4 1–2 8.2%

#5 1–0 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banga1.1

Kauno Žalgiris1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BANGA · PPG 1.64

KAUNO ŽALGIRIS · PPG 1.90

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Banga (H) 30.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +16.7%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.8%

Kauno Žalgiris (A) 42.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Banga face Kauno Žalgiris in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banga a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Kauno Žalgiris 43%, so Kauno Žalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Banga and 1.3 for Kauno Žalgiris (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banga are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.90 for Kauno Žalgiris. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Banga vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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