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Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Panevėžys

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-112.6%0-29.3%0-34.5%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.2%2-16.1%2-24.5%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.4%3-12.0%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 20.8% 4.80 +20.9%

Draw 26.3% 23.1% 4.33 +8.3%

Away win 45.6% 69.4% 1.44 -34.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 63.7% 1.57 -20.7%

Over 3.5 29.4% 42.0% 2.38 -18.0%

BTTS 52.7% 61.7% 1.62 -14.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 29.4% 3.40 +5.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 66.7% 1.50 -38.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.7%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Panevėžys1.0

FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PANEVĖŽYS · PPG 1.42

FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.48, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Panevėžys (H) 28.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +20.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +8.3%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A) 45.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Panevėžys face FK Zalgiris Vilnius in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Panevėžys a 28% chance, the draw 26% and FK Zalgiris Vilnius 46%, so FK Zalgiris Vilnius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Panevėžys and 1.5 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Panevėžys are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.58 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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