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Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Šiauliai

PPG 0.91 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Džiugas Telšiai

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-112.5%0-210.8%0-36.3%0-4+4.0%1 1-06.5%1-111.2%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-02.9%2-15.0%2-24.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% — — —

Draw 23.3% — — —

Away win 53.7% — — —

Over 2.5 52.8% — — —

Over 3.5 29.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -23.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob53.1%

A 54% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–2 10.8%

#4 1–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Šiauliai0.9

Džiugas Telšiai1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ŠIAULIAI · PPG 0.91

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Šiauliai (H) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Džiugas Telšiai (A) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Šiauliai face Džiugas Telšiai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Šiauliai a 23% chance, the draw 23% and Džiugas Telšiai 54%, so Džiugas Telšiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Šiauliai and 1.7 for Džiugas Telšiai (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Šiauliai are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.55 for Džiugas Telšiai. This match finished 3-4.

Šiauliai vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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