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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:30

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Džiugas Telšiai

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.3%0-24.9%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.7%1-111.5%1-27.6%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.0%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.6%3-14.7%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 61.7% 1.62 -25.6%

Draw 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Away win 29.4% 21.7% 4.60 +21.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

BTTS 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Home O1.5 46.0% 63.7% 1.57 -27.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 29.4% 3.40 +40.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 2–0✓ 6.8%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.6

Džiugas Telšiai1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS · PPG 1.58

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -25.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Džiugas Telšiai (A) 29.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Zalgiris Vilnius face Džiugas Telšiai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Zalgiris Vilnius a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Džiugas Telšiai 29%, so FK Zalgiris Vilnius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.3 for Džiugas Telšiai (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Zalgiris Vilnius are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.67 for Džiugas Telšiai. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +40.1%. This match finished 2-0.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Džiugas Telšiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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