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Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 27 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:45

Džiugas Telšiai

PPG 1.77 · HOME

UPCOMING

Suduva Marijampole

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-112.3%0-27.0%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.4%2-17.3%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.3%3-12.6%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 29.0% 3.45 +8.3%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 41.6% 48.8% 2.05 -14.7%

Over 2.5 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.6% 3.90 +7.2%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% 30.8% 3.25 -1.8%

Away O1.5 34.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -23.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Džiugas Telšiai1.1

Suduva Marijampole1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI · PPG 1.77

SUDUVA MARIJAMPOLE · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Džiugas Telšiai (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +8.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Suduva Marijampole (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Džiugas Telšiai face Suduva Marijampole in Lithuania - A Lyga on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Džiugas Telšiai a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Suduva Marijampole 42%, so Suduva Marijampole are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Džiugas Telšiai and 1.1 for Suduva Marijampole (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Džiugas Telšiai are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 1.45 for Suduva Marijampole. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +7.7%.

Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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