Today / Lithuania - A Lyga / Džiugas Telšiai vs Hegelmann Litauen

Džiugas Telšiai vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 29 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 15:45

Džiugas Telšiai

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Hegelmann Litauen

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 49.9% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-16.0%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.3%1-110.8%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.1%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 46.5% 2.15 +14.4%

Draw 24.1% 30.8% 3.25 -13.0%

Away win 22.8% 32.3% 3.10 -17.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.8% 1.93 +3.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.3% 3.30 +4.3%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Away O1.5 23.5% 37.0% 2.70 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Džiugas Telšiai1.8

Hegelmann Litauen0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DŽIUGAS TELŠIAI · PPG 1.64

HEGELMANN LITAUEN · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Džiugas Telšiai (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.0%

Hegelmann Litauen (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Džiugas Telšiai face Hegelmann Litauen in Lithuania - A Lyga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Džiugas Telšiai a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Hegelmann Litauen 23%, so Džiugas Telšiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Džiugas Telšiai and 0.8 for Hegelmann Litauen (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Džiugas Telšiai are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.75 for Hegelmann Litauen. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Džiugas Telšiai vs Hegelmann Litauen Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - A Lyga Predictions