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FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:30

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Banga

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-112.1%0-26.8%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.9%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-17.4%2-24.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.7%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 52.4% 1.91 -24.6%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 33.5% 27.8% 3.60 +20.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 30.2% 52.4% 1.91 -42.3%

Away O1.5 34.7% 33.3% 3.00 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -23.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

A 34% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Zalgiris Vilnius1.1

Banga1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FK ZALGIRIS VILNIUS · PPG 1.73

BANGA · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.02, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (H) 39.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -24.6%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Banga (A) 33.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Zalgiris Vilnius face Banga in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Zalgiris Vilnius a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Banga 34%, so FK Zalgiris Vilnius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.1 for Banga (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Zalgiris Vilnius are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.62 for Banga. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.4%.

FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Banga Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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