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TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 15:45

TransINVEST Vilnius

PPG 1.64 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Panevėžys

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-13.8%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-18.5%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.1%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-16.7%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 59.9% 1.67 +2.4%

Draw 19.6% 29.4% 3.40 -20.0%

Away win 19.1% 22.7% 4.40 -9.6%

Over 2.5 61.5% 58.8% 1.70 +4.5%

Over 3.5 38.7% 38.2% 2.62 +1.4%

BTTS 54.2% 60.6% 1.65 -10.6%

Home O1.5 63.0% 57.8% 1.73 +9.0%

Away O1.5 17.2% 30.8% 3.25 -26.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -23.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.2%

H 61% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 1–1 8.5%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TransINVEST Vilnius2.2

Panevėžys0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRANSINVEST VILNIUS · PPG 1.64

PANEVĖŽYS · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.48 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

TransINVEST Vilnius (H) 61.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +2.4%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -20.0%

Panevėžys (A) 19.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

TransINVEST Vilnius face Panevėžys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TransINVEST Vilnius a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Panevėžys 19%, so TransINVEST Vilnius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for TransINVEST Vilnius and 0.8 for Panevėžys (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TransINVEST Vilnius are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.60 for Panevėžys. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 0-2.

TransINVEST Vilnius vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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