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Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 15:45

Suduva Marijampole

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Panevėžys

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-13.3%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.8%1-17.5%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.6%3-16.3%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-16.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.7% 66.7% 1.50 +6.0%

Draw 20.8% 27.0% 3.70 -13.8%

Away win 8.4% 18.2% 5.50 -32.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Home O1.5 65.1% 61.7% 1.62 +5.5%

Away O1.5 16.4% 23.1% 4.33 -17.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -17.6%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.6%

H 71% / xG 2.2-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 15.5%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 3–0 11.6%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suduva Marijampole2.2

Panevėžys0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUDUVA MARIJAMPOLE · PPG 2.17

PANEVĖŽYS · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.70 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Suduva Marijampole (H) 70.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +6.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.8%

Panevėžys (A) 8.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suduva Marijampole face Panevėžys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suduva Marijampole a 71% chance, the draw 21% and Panevėžys 8%, so Suduva Marijampole are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Suduva Marijampole and 0.5 for Panevėžys (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suduva Marijampole are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.75 for Panevėžys. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Suduva Marijampole vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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