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FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:00

FK Liepaja

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Grobiņa

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-14.6%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.7%1-19.3%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-16.2%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-15.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 62.5% 1.60 +2.2%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 15.2% 21.7% 4.60 -18.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 61.7% 1.62 -12.7%

Over 3.5 34.8% 40.0% 2.50 -13.0%

BTTS 50.4% 63.7% 1.57 -20.9%

Home O1.5 55.6% 63.7% 1.57 -12.7%

Away O1.5 17.9% 33.3% 3.00 -27.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.4%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Liepaja2.0

Grobiņa0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FK LIEPAJA · PPG 1.82

GROBIŅA · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FK Liepaja (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +2.2%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

Grobiņa (A) 15.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Liepaja face Grobiņa in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Liepaja a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Grobiņa 15%, so FK Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for FK Liepaja and 0.7 for Grobiņa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Liepaja are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.77 for Grobiņa. This match finished 3-1.

FK Liepaja vs Grobiņa Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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