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Ogre United vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Ogre United

PPG 0.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FS Jelgava

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.1%0-26.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.2%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-18.1%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.6%3-13.6%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 26.0% 3.85 +40.5%

Draw 25.3% 28.6% 3.50 -6.9%

Away win 38.2% 55.6% 1.80 -31.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 56.5% 1.77 -4.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.9% 2.95 -6.8%

BTTS 54.9% 59.9% 1.67 -8.3%

Home O1.5 37.8% 33.9% 2.95 +11.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 55.6% 1.80 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.9%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ogre United1.3

FS Jelgava1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.64

FS JELGAVA · PPG 0.92

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ogre United (H) 36.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +40.5%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.9%

FS Jelgava (A) 38.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ogre United face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ogre United a 37% chance, the draw 25% and FS Jelgava 38%, so FS Jelgava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ogre United and 1.4 for FS Jelgava (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ogre United are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 0.92 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Ogre United vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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