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Auda vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 27 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 15:00

Auda

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Tukums

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.8%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.8%1-17.2%1-23.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.7%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.5%3-18.0%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-19.5%4+-25.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 61.0% 1.64 +1.7%

Draw 19.8% 25.0% 4.00 -12.5%

Away win 18.2% 23.8% 4.20 -14.1%

Over 2.5 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

Over 3.5 40.3% 39.2% 2.55 +2.8%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 63.7% 1.57 +2.2%

Away O1.5 33.8% 34.5% 2.90 -2.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda2.6

Tukums1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.73

TUKUMS · PPG 0.31

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 1.73 vs 0.31 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +1.7%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.5%

Tukums (A) 18.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Tukums 18%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Auda and 1.1 for Tukums (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.31 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Auda vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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