Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Super Nova vs FK Liepaja

Super Nova vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

Super Nova

PPG 0.73 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FK Liepaja

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-19.0%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.5%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% 33.3% 3.00 +29.0%

Draw 25.5% 28.2% 3.55 -5.7%

Away win 31.5% 48.8% 2.05 -35.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 42.5% 40.8% 2.45 +4.1%

Away O1.5 35.5% 54.1% 1.85 -34.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova1.4

FK Liepaja1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.73

FK LIEPAJA · PPG 0.85

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova (H) 43.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +29.0%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.7%

FK Liepaja (A) 31.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -35.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova face FK Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 43% chance, the draw 26% and FK Liepaja 32%, so Super Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Super Nova and 1.2 for FK Liepaja (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 0.85 for FK Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Super Nova vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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