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Riga vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Riga

PPG 2.69 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ogre United

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 82.3% vs bookmaker-implied 96.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.2%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.6%1-11.0%1-20.3%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-04.1%2-12.5%2-20.8%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.1%3-14.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-041.0%4+-125.2%4+-27.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.3% 96.2% 1.04 -14.4%

Draw 10.0% 10.3% 9.75 -1.5%

Away win 7.7% 3.8% 26.00 +60.1%

Over 2.5 80.9% 82.0% 1.22 -1.3%

Over 3.5 62.8% 69.0% 1.45 -8.9%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 78.3% 85.5% 1.17 -8.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)5.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob52.3%

H 82% / xG 5.2-0.6 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 9.5%

#2 4–0 9.2%

#3 3–0 7.1%

#4 5–1 5.8%

#5 4–1✓ 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga5.2

Ogre United0.6

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 62.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA · PPG 2.69

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.54

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +4.55 for Home, form 2.69 vs 0.54 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Riga (H) 82.3%

ODDS 1.04 · IMPLIED 96.2% EV -14.4%

Draw 10.0%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV -1.5%

Ogre United (A) 7.7%

ODDS 26.00 · IMPLIED 3.8% EV +60.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga a 82% chance, the draw 10% and Ogre United 8%, so Riga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.2 for Riga and 0.6 for Ogre United (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga are averaging 2.69 points per game versus 0.54 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +128.2%. This match finished 4-1.

Riga vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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