Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Auda vs FK Liepaja

Auda vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 23 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 16:00

Auda

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

FK Liepaja

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.4%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.0%1-19.3%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-17.0%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.1%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 55.6% 1.80 +1.9%

Draw 21.9% 27.4% 3.65 -12.0%

Away win 21.4% 27.4% 3.65 -13.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

BTTS 54.3% 64.5% 1.55 -15.8%

Home O1.5 59.6% 58.8% 1.70 +1.3%

Away O1.5 25.7% 37.7% 2.65 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0✓ 10.0%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda2.1

FK Liepaja0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.83

FK LIEPAJA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +1.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.0%

FK Liepaja (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face FK Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 57% chance, the draw 22% and FK Liepaja 21%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Auda and 0.9 for FK Liepaja (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.00 for FK Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Auda vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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