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Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 26 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:30

Rīgas FS

PPG 2.36 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Grobiņa

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.5% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-11.5%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.1%1-14.3%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.8%2-16.3%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.6%3-16.2%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-022.3%4+-19.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% 89.3% 1.12 -14.3%

Draw 15.8% 14.8% 6.75 +4.0%

Away win 7.7% 6.3% 16.00 +13.9%

Over 2.5 64.1% 73.5% 1.36 -12.8%

Over 3.5 42.6% 51.8% 1.93 -17.8%

BTTS 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

Home O1.5 80.3% 84.7% 1.18 -5.3%

Away O1.5 11.1% 16.7% 6.00 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob44.6%

H 76% / xG 3.0-0.4 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 3–0 14.6%

#3 4–0 10.8%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 5–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rīgas FS3.0

Grobiņa0.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RĪGAS FS · PPG 2.36

GROBIŅA · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.52 for Home, form 2.36 vs 0.83 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Rīgas FS (H) 76.5%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -14.3%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +4.0%

Grobiņa (A) 7.7%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rīgas FS face Grobiņa in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rīgas FS a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Grobiņa 8%, so Rīgas FS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Rīgas FS and 0.4 for Grobiņa (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rīgas FS are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.83 for Grobiņa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 6-1.

Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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