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Tukums vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Tukums

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.7%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.6%1-19.5%1-25.9%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.3%3-16.6%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.3%4+-23.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 38.2% 2.62 +31.5%

Draw 22.3% 32.3% 3.10 -18.5%

Away win 27.5% 41.7% 2.40 -20.4%

Over 2.5 62.1% 57.1% 1.75 +8.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 36.4% 2.75 +8.1%

BTTS 60.8% 62.5% 1.60 -2.7%

Home O1.5 57.5% 44.4% 2.25 +29.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.8%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 5.9%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums2.0

FS Jelgava1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 1.23

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.08

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +31.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.5%

FS Jelgava (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 50% chance, the draw 22% and FS Jelgava 28%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Tukums and 1.2 for FS Jelgava (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.08 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.2%. This match finished 1-4.

Tukums vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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