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FS Jelgava vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.08 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Auda

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-112.7%0-29.8%0-35.1%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.7%2-15.8%2-24.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.2%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 31.3% 3.20 -11.2%

Draw 28.3% 30.3% 3.30 -4.0%

Away win 46.3% 47.6% 2.10 -2.8%

Over 2.5 50.3% 54.1% 1.85 -6.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 31.3% 3.20 -4.7%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

Away O1.5 48.2% 50.0% 2.00 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob51.6%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1✓ 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.2%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava1.0

Auda1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.08

AUDA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.60 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 25.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.2%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.0%

Auda (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face Auda in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Auda 46%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FS Jelgava and 1.6 for Auda (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 2.00 for Auda. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-1.

FS Jelgava vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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