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Rīgas FS vs Riga Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Rīgas FS

PPG 2.42 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Riga

PPG 2.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.3%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.0%1-19.9%1-27.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.0%3-15.7%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.1%4+-22.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 43.5% 2.30 +9.7%

Draw 22.8% 32.3% 3.10 -17.6%

Away win 29.5% 36.4% 2.75 -11.3%

Over 2.5 63.1% 57.8% 1.73 +9.2%

Over 3.5 39.4% 36.4% 2.75 +8.3%

BTTS 63.1% 64.5% 1.55 -2.2%

Home O1.5 54.9% 50.0% 2.00 +9.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 42.0% 2.38 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rīgas FS1.9

Riga1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

RĪGAS FS · PPG 2.42

RIGA · PPG 2.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rīgas FS (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +9.7%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.6%

Riga (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rīgas FS face Riga in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rīgas FS a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Riga 30%, so Rīgas FS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Rīgas FS and 1.4 for Riga (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rīgas FS are averaging 2.42 points per game versus 2.36 for Riga. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 3-3.

Rīgas FS vs Riga Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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