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Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Super Nova

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

BFC Daugavpils

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-111.0%0-26.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.7%1-113.0%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.3%2-17.7%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.0%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 32.3% 3.10 +11.6%

Draw 27.2% 28.6% 3.50 -2.9%

Away win 36.8% 48.8% 2.05 -24.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 56.5% 1.77 -11.3%

Over 3.5 28.2% 33.9% 2.95 -10.1%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 32.4% 39.2% 2.55 -17.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 51.3% 1.95 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0✓ 9.0%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova1.2

BFC Daugavpils1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.67

BFC DAUGAVPILS · PPG 0.91

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova (H) 36.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.9%

BFC Daugavpils (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova face BFC Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 36% chance, the draw 27% and BFC Daugavpils 37%, so BFC Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Super Nova and 1.2 for BFC Daugavpils (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.91 for BFC Daugavpils. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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