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FK Liepaja vs Riga Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 28 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:30

FK Liepaja

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Riga

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-17.0%0-27.9%0-35.9%0-4+5.6%1 1-03.8%1-18.5%1-29.6%1-37.2%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.3%2-15.2%2-25.9%2-34.4%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.9%3-12.1%3-22.4%3-31.8%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.6% 15.6% 6.40 +26.8%

Draw 20.6% 21.7% 4.60 -3.1%

Away win 56.7% 73.5% 1.36 -22.9%

Over 2.5 66.8% 65.4% 1.53 +2.2%

Over 3.5 44.9% 42.6% 2.35 +5.5%

BTTS 62.0% 58.8% 1.70 +5.4%

Home O1.5 33.4% 27.0% 3.70 +23.6%

Away O1.5 68.6% 72.5% 1.38 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob62.0%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 1–3 7.2%

#5 2–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Liepaja1.2

Riga2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FK LIEPAJA · PPG 1.92

RIGA · PPG 2.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.03 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FK Liepaja (H) 22.6%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +26.8%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -3.1%

Riga (A) 56.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Liepaja face Riga in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Liepaja a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Riga 57%, so Riga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FK Liepaja and 2.3 for Riga (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Liepaja are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 2.25 for Riga. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.2%. This match finished 3-2.

FK Liepaja vs Riga Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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