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Auda vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Auda

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Super Nova

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-16.0%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-110.7%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.6%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 69.4% 1.44 -21.2%

Draw 23.9% 25.0% 4.00 -2.6%

Away win 21.3% 16.7% 6.00 +16.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.9%

BTTS 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 65.4% 1.53 -25.2%

Away O1.5 20.3% 23.1% 4.33 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 100 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 20.6%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.3%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.2%

#2 2–0 12.6%

#3 1–1✓ 10.7%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda1.8

Super Nova0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.92

SUPER NOVA · PPG 1.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -21.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.6%

Super Nova (A) 21.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Super Nova 21%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Auda and 0.8 for Super Nova (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.58 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Auda vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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