1. Liga

LATVIA · 13 MATCHES TRACKED · 16 MAY 2026 – 31 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 13 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

53.8%

1X2

7/13

84.6%

O/U 2.5

11/13

76.9%

BTTS

10/13

15.4%

Exact score

2/13

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

66.7%

Hit rate

8/12

1.50

Avg odds

-0.6%

ROI

-0.1u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.47 · +5.9% ROI

HOME WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.42 · -2.7% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.70 · -20.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

67%

Hit

+3.3%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

67%

Hit

-2.7%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

100%

Hit

+50.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

60%

Hit

-11.8%

ROI

Match log

13 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 13 PICKS · 9 HIT · 4 MISS

31 MAY Alberts JDFS vs Tukums B HO1.5 6–1 HIT 26 MAY Super Nova II vs Valmiera Over 2.5 -7% 0–0 MISS 24 MAY Tukums B vs Smiltene Over 2.5 +3% 1–1 MISS 24 MAY Alberts JDFS vs Skanste Over 2.5 -4% 4–1 HIT 23 MAY Marupe vs RFS B Home +1% 1–4 MISS 23 MAY Rezekne vs Riga FC B Over 2.5 -8% 2–1 HIT 23 MAY Riga Mariners vs Metta Away +11% 2–2 MISS 23 MAY Leevon PPK vs JFK Ventspils Home -4% 2–1 HIT 17 MAY Riga FC B vs Marupe Over 2.5 -5% 0–4 HIT 16 MAY Rezekne vs Tukums B Over 2.5 -4% 1–4 HIT 16 MAY Riga Mariners vs Valmiera Over 2.5 -12% 3–1 HIT 16 MAY Metta vs Alberts JDFS Home +7% 4–1 HIT 16 MAY RFS B vs Leevon PPK Away +10% 1–2 HIT