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Skanste vs Tukums II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 10:00

Skanste

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Tukums II

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.9% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.6%0-21.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.8%1-15.0%1-23.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.9%2-17.7%2-25.0%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.9%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-113.2%4+-28.6%4+-33.8%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.6% 60.6% 1.65 +13.2%

Draw 15.8% 23.8% 4.20 -20.2%

Away win 15.7% 27.0% 3.70 -25.1%

Over 2.5 72.0% 73.5% 1.36 -2.1%

Over 3.5 52.0% 55.6% 1.80 -6.4%

BTTS 63.1% 72.5% 1.38 -12.9%

Home O1.5 77.3% 69.9% 1.43 +10.5%

Away O1.5 38.9% 47.6% 2.10 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 69% / xG 3.1-1.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 4–1 6.1%

#4 1–1 5.0%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skanste3.1

Tukums II1.3

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SKANSTE · PPG 1.44

TUKUMS II · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.79 for Home, form 1.44 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Skanste (H) 68.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +13.2%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -20.2%

Tukums II (A) 15.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skanste face Tukums II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skanste a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Tukums II 16%, so Skanste are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Skanste and 1.3 for Tukums II (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skanste are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.50 for Tukums II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +40.9%. This match finished 6-2.

Skanste vs Tukums II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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