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Leevon / PPK vs Smiltene Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:00

Leevon / PPK

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Smiltene

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.98 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.2%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.7%1-16.2%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.8%2-18.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.0%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-110.9%4+-24.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% — — —

Draw 16.4% — — —

Away win 14.5% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.5% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 65.9% — — —

Away O1.5 22.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–1 6.2%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leevon / PPK2.8

Smiltene0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEVON / PPK · PPG 2.38

SMILTENE · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.98 for Home, form 2.38 vs 0.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Leevon / PPK (H) 69.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Smiltene (A) 14.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Leevon / PPK face Smiltene in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leevon / PPK a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Smiltene 14%, so Leevon / PPK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Leevon / PPK and 0.8 for Smiltene (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leevon / PPK are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.62 for Smiltene. This match finished 4-2.

Leevon / PPK vs Smiltene Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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