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Riga FC II vs Riga Mariners Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 17 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 16:00

Riga FC II

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Riga Mariners

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.9%0-27.9%0-36.0%0-4+5.8%1 1-03.7%1-18.4%1-29.6%1-37.3%1-4+7.1%2 2-02.2%2-15.1%2-25.8%2-34.4%2-4+4.3%3 3-00.9%3-12.1%3-22.4%3-31.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.2% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 56.5% — — —

Over 2.5 64.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.2% — — —

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 33.1% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 1–3✓ 7.3%

#5 2–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC II1.2

Riga Mariners2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC II · PPG 2.00

RIGA MARINERS · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.06 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC II (H) 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Riga Mariners (A) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC II face Riga Mariners in Latvia - 1. Liga on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC II a 23% chance, the draw 20% and Riga Mariners 56%, so Riga Mariners are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Riga FC II and 2.3 for Riga Mariners (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC II are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.38 for Riga Mariners. This match finished 1-3.

Riga FC II vs Riga Mariners Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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