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Leevon / PPK vs Super Nova 2 Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Leevon / PPK

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Super Nova 2

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-15.9%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.0%1-110.8%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.0%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 69.0% 1.45 -23.3%

Draw 23.6% 23.1% 4.33 +1.3%

Away win 23.5% 20.0% 5.00 +10.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 65.4% 1.53 -18.1%

Over 3.5 32.7% 44.4% 2.25 -26.4%

BTTS 54.3% 61.0% 1.64 -10.9%

Home O1.5 52.6% 68.0% 1.47 -22.7%

Away O1.5 29.4% 33.3% 3.00 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.3%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1✓ 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leevon / PPK1.8

Super Nova 21.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEEVON / PPK · PPG 2.44

SUPER NOVA 2 · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Leevon / PPK (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -23.3%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.3%

Super Nova 2 (A) 23.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leevon / PPK face Super Nova 2 in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leevon / PPK a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Super Nova 2 24%, so Leevon / PPK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Leevon / PPK and 1.0 for Super Nova 2 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leevon / PPK are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.11 for Super Nova 2. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Leevon / PPK vs Super Nova 2 Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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