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Smiltene vs Metta / LU Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Smiltene

PPG 0.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

0 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Metta / LU

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -3.52 for Away, form 0.62 vs 2.50

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-12.3%0-25.0%0-37.3%0-4+26.7%1 1-00.5%1-12.0%1-24.4%1-36.4%1-4+23.3%2 2-00.2%2-10.9%2-21.9%2-32.8%2-4+10.2%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.6%3-30.8%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.6% — — —

Draw 13.7% — — —

Away win 74.8% — — —

Over 2.5 83.1% — — —

Over 3.5 63.7% — — —

BTTS 59.9% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 88.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 8.0%

#2 0–3 7.3%

#3 0–5 7.0%

#4 1–4 7.0%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smiltene0.9

Metta / LU4.4

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.1% · O3.5 PROB 63.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SMILTENE · PPG 0.62

METTA / LU · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -3.52 for Away, form 0.62 vs 2.50

Win probability 1X2

Smiltene (H) 11.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 13.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Metta / LU (A) 74.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Smiltene face Metta / LU in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smiltene a 12% chance, the draw 14% and Metta / LU 75%, so Metta / LU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Smiltene and 4.4 for Metta / LU (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smiltene are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 2.50 for Metta / LU. This match finished 0-6.

Smiltene vs Metta / LU Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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