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Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Mārupe

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

JDFS Alberts

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-16.2%0-25.3%0-33.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.7%1-19.9%1-28.6%1-34.9%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.6%2-17.9%2-26.9%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.4%3-14.2%3-23.7%3-32.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.4%4+-22.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 25.6% 3.90 +34.9%

Draw 22.4% 24.4% 4.10 -4.9%

Away win 43.0% 61.7% 1.62 -30.3%

Over 2.5 62.4% 65.4% 1.53 -4.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 44.1% 2.27 -10.8%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 48.3% 37.7% 2.65 +28.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 64.5% 1.55 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.5%

A 43% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2✓ 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mārupe1.6

JDFS Alberts1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MĀRUPE · PPG 1.33

JDFS ALBERTS · PPG 1.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mārupe (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +34.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.9%

JDFS Alberts (A) 43.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -30.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mārupe face JDFS Alberts in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mārupe a 35% chance, the draw 22% and JDFS Alberts 43%, so JDFS Alberts are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Mārupe and 1.7 for JDFS Alberts (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mārupe are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.56 for JDFS Alberts. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Mārupe vs JDFS Alberts Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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