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JFK Ventspils vs Riga FC II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

JFK Ventspils

PPG 0.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Riga FC II

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.5%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.3%1-112.6%1-27.8%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 39.2% 2.55 -0.3%

Draw 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -1.6%

Away win 34.5% 45.5% 2.20 -24.1%

Over 2.5 52.9% 61.7% 1.62 -14.3%

Over 3.5 31.2% 40.5% 2.47 -22.9%

BTTS 54.3% 64.5% 1.55 -15.8%

Home O1.5 37.6% 47.2% 2.12 -20.3%

Away O1.5 36.6% 51.0% 1.96 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JFK Ventspils1.3

Riga FC II1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JFK VENTSPILS · PPG 0.25

RIGA FC II · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

JFK Ventspils (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -0.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.6%

Riga FC II (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

JFK Ventspils face Riga FC II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JFK Ventspils a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Riga FC II 35%, so JFK Ventspils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for JFK Ventspils and 1.2 for Riga FC II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JFK Ventspils are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Riga FC II. This match finished 1-1.

JFK Ventspils vs Riga FC II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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