Today / Latvia - 1. Liga / Valmiera / BSS vs Mārupe

Valmiera / BSS vs Mārupe Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:00

Valmiera / BSS

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Mārupe

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.3%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.4%1-17.9%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-19.5%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.6%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-18.0%4+-23.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.0% 83.3% 1.20 -22.0%

Draw 19.5% 16.0% 6.25 +13.1%

Away win 15.5% 11.1% 9.00 +23.7%

Over 2.5 63.1% 75.2% 1.33 -16.1%

Over 3.5 39.4% 55.6% 1.80 -29.1%

BTTS 54.7% 57.1% 1.75 -4.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 82.0% 1.22 -20.6%

Away O1.5 22.7% 26.3% 3.80 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.7%

H 65% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 3–0 9.0%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valmiera / BSS2.4

Mārupe0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VALMIERA / BSS · PPG 2.67

MĀRUPE · PPG 1.62

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 2.67 vs 1.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Valmiera / BSS (H) 65.0%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -22.0%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +13.1%

Mārupe (A) 15.5%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valmiera / BSS face Mārupe in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valmiera / BSS a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Mārupe 16%, so Valmiera / BSS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Valmiera / BSS and 0.8 for Mārupe (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valmiera / BSS are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.62 for Mārupe. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +37.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Valmiera / BSS vs Mārupe Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - 1. Liga Predictions