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Rēzekne FA vs Valmiera / BSS Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Rēzekne FA

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Valmiera / BSS

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.50 for Away, form 0.56 vs 2.50

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-16.7%0-210.7%0-311.3%0-4+19.8%1 1-01.4%1-14.6%1-27.3%1-37.7%1-4+13.5%2 2-00.5%2-11.6%2-22.5%2-32.6%2-4+4.6%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.6%3-30.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.3% — — —

Draw 15.8% — — —

Away win 72.9% — — —

Over 2.5 68.2% — — —

Over 3.5 48.2% — — —

BTTS 52.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 76.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 11.3%

#2 0–2 10.7%

#3 0–4 9.0%

#4 1–1 4.6%

#5 1–3 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rēzekne FA0.7

Valmiera / BSS3.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RĒZEKNE FA · PPG 0.56

VALMIERA / BSS · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.50 for Away, form 0.56 vs 2.50

Win probability 1X2

Rēzekne FA (H) 11.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Valmiera / BSS (A) 72.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Rēzekne FA face Valmiera / BSS in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rēzekne FA a 11% chance, the draw 16% and Valmiera / BSS 73%, so Valmiera / BSS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Rēzekne FA and 3.2 for Valmiera / BSS (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rēzekne FA are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 2.50 for Valmiera / BSS. This match finished 1-6.

Rēzekne FA vs Valmiera / BSS Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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