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Riga Mariners vs Tukums II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Riga Mariners

PPG 1.86 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Tukums II

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.95 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.7%1-13.1%1-21.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.0%2-15.9%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.8%3-17.4%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-022.7%4+-119.0%4+-28.0%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 8.4% — — —

Over 2.5 73.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.7% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -38.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 75% / xG 3.8-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.8%

#2 4–0 8.4%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 4–1 7.0%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga Mariners3.8

Tukums II0.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA MARINERS · PPG 1.86

TUKUMS II · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.95 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Riga Mariners (H) 75.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tukums II (A) 8.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga Mariners face Tukums II in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga Mariners a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Tukums II 8%, so Riga Mariners are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Riga Mariners and 0.8 for Tukums II (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga Mariners are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.57 for Tukums II. This match finished 4-2.

Riga Mariners vs Tukums II Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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