Today / Latvia - 1. Liga / Super Nova 2 vs Skanste

Super Nova 2 vs Skanste Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:00

Super Nova 2

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Skanste

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.1%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.1%1-19.8%1-26.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.3%3-16.0%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 31.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.5% — — —

Over 3.5 41.1% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 54.9% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova 21.9

Skanste1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA 2 · PPG 1.62

SKANSTE · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova 2 (H) 46.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Skanste (A) 31.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova 2 face Skanste in Latvia - 1. Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova 2 a 46% chance, the draw 22% and Skanste 32%, so Super Nova 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Super Nova 2 and 1.4 for Skanste (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova 2 are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.86 for Skanste. This match finished 1-1.

Super Nova 2 vs Skanste Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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