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Rīgas FS II vs JDFS Alberts Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Rīgas FS II

PPG 0.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

JDFS Alberts

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-15.1%0-26.2%0-35.0%0-4+5.5%1 1-03.0%1-17.3%1-28.9%1-37.2%1-4+7.9%2 2-02.1%2-15.2%2-26.4%2-35.2%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.0%3-12.5%3-23.0%3-32.5%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.2%4+-21.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% 20.0% 5.00 +11.4%

Draw 19.6% 22.2% 4.50 -7.1%

Away win 56.6% 70.4% 1.42 -19.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 47.6% 51.5% 1.94 -7.7%

BTTS 63.2% 67.1% 1.49 -5.8%

Home O1.5 40.0% 38.5% 2.60 +4.0%

Away O1.5 65.4% 74.1% 1.35 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -24.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.2%

A 57% / xG 1.4-2.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 1–3✓ 7.2%

#4 2–1 5.2%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rīgas FS II1.4

JDFS Alberts2.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RĪGAS FS II · PPG 0.62

JDFS ALBERTS · PPG 1.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.01 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Rīgas FS II (H) 23.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +11.4%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -7.1%

JDFS Alberts (A) 56.6%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rīgas FS II face JDFS Alberts in Latvia - 1. Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rīgas FS II a 24% chance, the draw 20% and JDFS Alberts 57%, so JDFS Alberts are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Rīgas FS II and 2.4 for JDFS Alberts (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rīgas FS II are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.38 for JDFS Alberts. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +43.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Rīgas FS II vs JDFS Alberts Prediction— Latvia - 1. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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