Leagues / GERMANY / Bundesliga
Bundesliga
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 45 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
53.3%
1X2
24/45
73.3%
O/U 2.5
33/45
75.6%
BTTS
34/45
48.9%
Exact score
22/45
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
45
Settled
68.9%
Hit rate
31/45
1.50
Avg odds
+3.3%
ROI
+1.5u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=21 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.44 · -3.7% ROI
BTTS · N=17 76.5% HIT · AVG 1.53 · +17.4% ROI
HOME WIN · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.34 · -32.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 2.02 · +20.7% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-9.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
80%
Hit
+19.8%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
4
Bets
75%
Hit
+22.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
32
Bets
69%
Hit
-0.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 11 HIT · 4 MISS
16 MAY Sankt Pauli vs Wolfsburg BTTS -7% 1–3 HIT16 MAY Monchengladbach vs Hoffenheim Over 2.5 -17% 4–0 HIT16 MAY Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV Over 2.5 -20% 1–1 MISS16 MAY Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz Over 2.5 -13% 0–2 MISS16 MAY Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Over 2.5 -13% 4–1 HIT16 MAY E. Frankfurt vs Stuttgart Over 2.5 -17% 2–2 HIT16 MAY Bayern Munich vs FC Koln Over 2.5 -12% 5–1 HIT16 MAY Werder Bremen vs Dortmund Away +23% 0–2 HIT16 MAY Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg BTTS -15% 4–0 MISS10 MAY Hamburger SV vs Freiburg BTTS -10% 3–2 HIT10 MAY FC Koln vs Heidenheim Over 2.5 -9% 1–3 HIT10 MAY FSV Mainz vs Union Berlin BTTS -10% 1–3 HIT9 MAY Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Over 2.5 -15% 1–0 MISS9 MAY FC Augsburg vs Monchengladbach BTTS -15% 3–1 HIT9 MAY Stuttgart vs Leverkusen BTTS -19% 3–1 HIT