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Bayern Munich vs FC Koln Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Bayern Munich

PPG 2.56 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Koln

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.0% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.7%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.8%1-12.8%1-21.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.5%2-15.6%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-17.3%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-019.9%4+-120.3%4+-210.4%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% 85.5% 1.17 -16.9%

Draw 20.4% 12.2% 8.20 +40.4%

Away win 8.6% 9.1% 11.00 -3.2%

Over 2.5 79.0% 90.1% 1.11 -12.3%

Over 3.5 72.8% 75.2% 1.33 -3.2%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 71% / xG 3.9-1.0 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 4–1 7.2%

#3 3–0 7.2%

#4 4–0 7.0%

#5 5–1✓ 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern Munich3.9

FC Koln1.0

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 72.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN MUNICH · PPG 2.56

FC KOLN · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.56), Away POOR (0.81) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bayern Munich (H) 71.0%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -16.9%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +40.4%

FC Koln (A) 8.6%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern Munich face FC Koln in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern Munich a 71% chance, the draw 20% and FC Koln 9%, so Bayern Munich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Bayern Munich and 1.0 for FC Koln (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern Munich are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 0.81 for FC Koln. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +40.4%. This match finished 5-1.

Bayern Munich vs FC Koln Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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