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Sankt Pauli vs Wolfsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Sankt Pauli

PPG 1.06 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wolfsburg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.1%0-25.8%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.1%1-111.7%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.4%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.0%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 34.2% 2.92 +7.5%

Draw 26.0% 28.2% 3.55 -4.6%

Away win 37.2% 44.4% 2.25 -16.3%

Over 2.5 58.0% 59.9% 1.67 -3.1%

Over 3.5 32.5% 37.0% 2.70 -12.3%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sankt Pauli1.4

Wolfsburg1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANKT PAULI · PPG 1.06

WOLFSBURG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sankt Pauli (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +7.5%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.6%

Wolfsburg (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sankt Pauli face Wolfsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sankt Pauli a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Wolfsburg 37%, so Wolfsburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sankt Pauli and 1.4 for Wolfsburg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sankt Pauli are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.00 for Wolfsburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Sankt Pauli vs Wolfsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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