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VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 2 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:30

VfB Stuttgart

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

1. FC Köln

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.8%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.3%1-19.7%1-25.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.7%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.4%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 66.2% 1.51 -25.1%

Draw 23.1% 21.1% 4.75 +5.8%

Away win 27.3% 20.0% 5.00 +21.9%

Over 2.5 59.6% 72.5% 1.38 -17.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 51.8% 1.93 -29.8%

BTTS 55.9% 69.0% 1.45 -18.9%

Home O1.5 56.4% 73.5% 1.36 -23.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–2 5.6%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VfB Stuttgart2.0

1. FC Köln1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VFB STUTTGART · PPG 2.01

1. FC KÖLN · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

VfB Stuttgart (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -25.1%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +5.8%

1. FC Köln (A) 27.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

VfB Stuttgart face 1. FC Köln in Germany - Bundesliga on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VfB Stuttgart a 50% chance, the draw 23% and 1. FC Köln 27%, so VfB Stuttgart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.2 for 1. FC Köln (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.02 for 1. FC Köln. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%.

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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